🤔What is a recession?
📈Recession is a significant decline in economic activity, typically characterized by a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), rising unemployment rates, and declining consumer spending. In the United States, a recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That's why markets pay the most attention to the labor market, and GDP reports nowadays.
During a recession, the economy experiences a decline in economic output as businesses and consumers reduce spending. This leads to lower production levels, job losses, and reduced household income. Companies may also cut back on investment and reduce their workforces, leading to increased unemployment. This, in turn, leads to the stock market decline. During the 2000 and 2008 recessions in the US, the S&P500 index (US500) lost 50% and 58%, respectively.
As the economy weakens, many people experience financial hardship, with many individuals and families struggling to pay bills, keep up with mortgage payments, and put food on the table. Governments may implement policies to stimulate the economy, such as reducing interest rates, increasing government spending, or offering tax breaks to individuals and businesses.
Overall, a recession can significantly impact individuals and communities, leading to job losses, financial insecurity, and reduced opportunities. However, with the right policies and strategies, economies can recover and grow stronger after a recession.
🧐Do you think the US economy will plunge into a dip recession in 2023 - 2024?
💸What is your forecast on the USD in the middle term?